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2010 Offseason Primer, Version 2.0
AP Photo At the outset, there are a couple of things worth remembering while we consider the upcoming bonanza that is the 2010 offseason. 1. Cap holds matter. Dwyane Wade opting out of his contract does not mean Miami can just spend up to the cap amount (whatever it ends up at) and then re-sign him to put the team over the limit. As he is on a max contract now, his cap hold will have a substantial effect on the money Miami can offer within the confines of the cap. Of course, should a big ticket free agent leave or sign for less money, this hold would be eliminated from his original team's books accordingly, but that’s unlikely for the max-level players in the short run. Teams also need to have minimum salary cap holds on their vacated roster spots. 2. The Mid-Level Exception and other cap holds do not go on top of cap space- they take it away. One of my biggest criticisms of the 2K basketball series (excellent as it is) is that they have never gotten the free agency rules correct. The MLE is just that- an exception. That means it allows teams over the cap to still spend that money, but teams under the cap have to renounce it should they want to use that cap space on free agents. One particularly notable example of this was Rashard Lewis, where Orlando had to renounce their exceptions to fit his sizable salary on their ledgers, though that was complicated a little further by it being a trade. As such, any team that maxes out their cap space cannot just toss on a Mid-Level exception on top. They can absolutely add minimum salary guys and give bigger contracts to players they have Bird Rights on, but they do not have the MLE to work with on top of the cap. 3. Bird Rights teams and non-Bird Rights teams can offer the same maximum possible contract for the first season of the deal. The difference between Bird squads and teams trying to sign their free agents is that the Bird team can offer higher raises (10.5% vs. 8%) and add the sixth contract year, not the base salary of the first season. As such, the relevant cap number for squads looking to pick up guys like King James and D-Wade is identical regardless of where the FA played the season before. 4. 1st Round draft picks count against the cap…but not entirely. Once drafted (and before signing with an overseas team- if they do that, they’re off the books for that season), first rounders count at their scale amount. However, players can sign for between 80% and 120% of scale, though a vast majority sign for 120% of scale. As such, a pick and a team waiting to sign that rookie deal can save the team 1/5 of the scale value for the first season during that period, a value that only holds any real significance for top-5 picks and teams really on the cap. 5. I am using a $52.5 million dollar salary cap. No one knows yet where the cap will be next off-season, but the number I am using is $52.5 million, which seems like a reasonable low-end (but not doomsday) estimate. Atlanta: The Hawks’ moves this past summer effectively took them out of the 2010 Free Agent sweepstakes. It’s hard to argue with the bargain they got on Marvin Williams (with a built-in dip for next season which offsets the increase in Josh Smith’s deal), but their core simply costs to much for them to add a big name free agent whether Joe Johnson chooses to return or not.
Boston: The Celtics have been out of the 2010 chase since they made the big moves that led them to the 2008 championship. It looked for a fleeting second like they could have a little room to make a splash with Ray Allen coming off the books, but the Rondo extension coupled with Rasheed Wallace’s contract made it clear that this squad will not be adding another expensive free agent this off-season. Nate Robinson’s cap hold is included as well, for the time being. Charlotte: One of the first major decisions of the Michael Jordan ownership group is whether to bring back Tyrus Thomas for next season and beyond considering the perilous cap/tax situation the Bobcats are in. Interestingly, they have an outside shot of some financial freedom in 2011 depending on the decisions they make on guys like Thomas and Raymond Felton. Chicago: For the time being, Chicago is in a form of limbo when it comes to the 2010 free agent class. While they would have space at the moment for one max guy like Dwyane Wade, both Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich could potentially be shipped elsewhere early on in the off-season to open up even more room, like John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas were at the deadline. Cleveland: In a bold more, Cavs management took out any chance they have of making an impact in free agency for the next two off-seasons regardless of whether LeBron James returns to the Cleve or not. Naturally, there is a justifiable logic behind it, but it does take them out of the running for anything above the MLE. Dallas: Even after the big move with Washington, the Mavs are still the team with the trade possibilities. Since the most recent CBA, no team has had the combination of assets that Mark Cuban has going into this off-season. The most notable piece is Erick Dampier’s $13M non-guaranteed contract, which can be traded during next off-season and can be voided at any time once this season ends, meaning it is effectively instant cap space for whoever holds that hot potato contract when the music stops. Now, it remains incredibly unlikely that Dallas ends the last year of his deal themselves since it does them little help thanks to the amount of money they have on the books. The other compelling element of Dallas’ 2010 is that they could sync up pretty well with a team that wants to lose salary (let’s say Chicago) who is willing to give up talent for the space Damp’s contract would provide. Dallas could turn a team that is on the fringes of being able to sign a free agent into a major contender in one trade. Denver: Similar to Boston and many other playoff teams, Denver made its bed with the roster it already has. Considering both the players they have and the small amount of space they could have had, Denver clearly made the right decision. That said, their biggest problem is that they have so much money tied up in their starting five that their bench will have to take a hit thanks to the looming possibility of the luxury tax. Luckily, they have Afflalo, Balkman and Ty Lawson on cheap deals, so they could potentially make it work reasonably until Kenyon Martin comes off the books in 2011.
Detroit: Joe Dumars’ squad is notable because of the decision to build a long-term team off of free agents in the 2009 class instead of the 2010 class. What makes their situation even more incredible is that Charlie Villanueva, Ben Gordon, Jason Maxiell, and Richard Hamilton are all signed through 2013, which is an awfully long time for that core. What may end up making the difference for Detroit is their SF army from the 2009 draft class: Jonas Jerebko (who won Rookie of the Month in a weak East crop in February), Austin Daye, and DeJuan Summers are all incredibly cheap in the short term. Regardless, they will not be a factor this off-season when it comes to free agents.br>
• Projected 2010 Salary [Hamilton, Prince, Ben Gordon, Rodney Stuckey, Villanueva, Maxiell, DeJuan Summers, Jonas Jerebko, and Chris Wilcox’s player option]: Golden State: No matter what, Warriors fans cannot expect to have the space to make a splash in the 2010 free agent pool. This has stayed true even after Stephen Jackson was effectively dumped for expirings since Monta and Biedrins combine to make $20 million and Maggette will make over $9M all by himself. Choosing not to trade the expiring contracts they had on the books makes the Warriors a non-factor this off-season when it comes to free agency (trades on the other hand….). Management will also have to decide on Anthony Morrow this summer, as he will be a RFA, a move complicated by Azubuike likely picking up his option due to his injury.
Houston: A very, very interesting team to watch this off-season. While it is true that they will not be a factor in signing other team’s free agents outright, they could easily engineer a sign-and-trade (Bosh?) with their current talent. Furthermore, decisions on guys like Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry could have a meaningful effect on the market. Indiana: The brass up in Indy has been working diligently to get substantially under the cap in 2011, when Dunleavy, Murphy, and Jamaal Tinsley’s albatross all expire. As such, they are not going to have an impact on the coming off-season except in the form of TJ Ford. Ford has an $8.5 million dollar player option for next season which is far more than he’d get on the open market, but someone with his injury history could very well opt for the security of a longer deal even at less money per season. L.A. Clippers : To adapt the words of my hero Conan O’Brien (and as said by Phil Hartman as Lyle Lanley): The Clippers with money are a like a mule with a spinning wheel; no one knows how they got it and danged if they know how to use it. Getting rid of Sebastian Telfair and Al Thornton gave Sterling some flexibility to potentially get a serious talent, ideally for the Small Forward position. With four starters likely in place, that sure seems like the place to focus money. They could also be another team that wields their cap space to get talent through trades (Iggy?) if they strike out in free agency. L.A. Lakers : Dr. Buss made the decision to keep his core intact, which was the right move. Like the other teams that needed to sign important players over the last few years, the Lake Show will not factor in to the decision-making of players going for over the MLE. Memphis: A few years ago, it looked like the Grizzlies could be power players in 2010, at least in terms of cap space. Then they chose to eat long-term salary (Jaric, Marko) to trade up to grab OJ Mayo in the 2008 Draft. That decision was coupled with the addition of Zach Randolph, who coincidentally has an identical contract to Pau Gasol before Pau got his extension. With those moves as well as the addition of Ronnie Brewer, Memphis took themselves out of getting any FA’s in 2010, though their decision on Restricted Free Agent Rudy Gay could have a significant impact on a few teams. Miami: Well, well, well. With just Wade (maybe), Beasley, Super Nintendo Chalmers, Cook, and any 2010 draft picks on roster, Miami will have an interesting hand to play this off-season (formerly the most interesting, but then the Knicks happened). What makes their situation different is that they have that much space and combine it with a talented team and a location where NBA players would actually want to live and play, making it even more impressive. That said, something to consider is that salaries kick up year to year and they need to fill their roster, so they have a tough balancing act to accomplish this summer. Milwaukee: One of the truly impressive turnaround stories in recent NBA history, management has some incredibly tough decisions ahead of them. Unfortunately for them, cap space this summer is not going to be one of them unless Michael Redd shocks everyone and opts out of his $18.3m player option. That said, the Bucks’ limited salary obligations for 2011 and beyond make them an interesting trade partner for any team that loses out on the big FA’s but still wants to make a splash in terms of talent. Minnesota: Just about the only thing the Clippers have done right in recent years is provide a decent template for how teams can use cap space to improve talents in ways other than free agency. Regardless of whether it is fair or not, it appears unlikely that high-end free agents (except Rudy Gay, possibly) will seriously consider it as a place to sign. Even then, Minnesota can use the space to trade for some quality talent and/or draft picks. Having the second most ping pong balls in the draft certainly won’t hurt as well. One big benefit for their front office is that their main guys on roster are all signed for a meaningful period of time to reasonable deals, which increases their flexibility and makes long-term salary estimations that much easier to make. New Jersey: Though the team is still in a form of flux because of the two seasons in Newark before the new Brooklyn arena is done, the Nets can still make a major impact in the near future when it comes to free agency. They have a ton of assets still on the early part of their rookie deals, which gives them flexibility. While 2011 is a reasonable option as well and should be used to fall back on if the big boys go elsewhere, the Nets’ combination of talent, location, and cap flexibility makes them an underrated force in the free agent market. Couple that with a very good shot at the #1 pick and the fact that their biggest holes are SF, PF, and C and you’ve got a nice formula for an impact. The most important thing for management is to not feel the pressure to waste their money in 2010 on Tier 2 or lower guys- it would be better to wait to see if the cream of the crop is interested in 2011 (including Brooklyn-born Carmelo Anthony) or even 2012. New Orleans: The Hornets did a good job getting under the tax for 2009-2010 without surrendering much talent/resources, but they will have to grapple with the same problem next season. As a team that is miles over the 2010 cap already no matter what they do with little in the form of expiring contracts, the Hornets will not be a factor in 2010 unless they choose to move a substantial part of their core. New York: Things have certainly changed since the original 2010 Primer. By moving Jared Jeffries, Walsh and Company have gone all-in for the 2010 class. Time will be the judge of whether that move was prudent or not, but it’s the course they’re on regardless. The Knicks still have the issue of limited talent outside of their cap space, which could loom large if/when they have to fill up slots with minimum salary guys. The other major issue is David Lee, who could very well be a part of this team long-term, but it is very unsure at the moment. Oklahoma City: Unlike the other young teams with some space this summer, Sam Presti has a little sense of urgency in terms of using his available room in 2010. Since Kevin Durant is eligible for an extension at the end of the summer, this off-season marks the closing of the window for true cap space will effectively close after this summer if he re-signs. Luckily both Nenad Kristic and Nick Collison’s deals expire in 2011, largely balancing Durant’s prospective deal, meaning that the space is a little more permanent in terms of long-term accounting. Kevin has already indicated that he is interesting in an extension and management would be wise to accommodate since he is a true #1 in a city that would be hard-pressed to get another one through free agency. Either way, the Thunder have the PG, SG, and SF spots on lock now, which is simply incredible for a team with space and two first round draft picks. Like Minnesota, they may end up using that space in a trade for the right big man rather than a new signing, but the space needs to be used this summer. Orlando: Like a vast majority of the other current top-tier teams, Orlando is locked in roster-wise for the long term. This puts them a long, long way out of the 2010 derby unless another team is interested in a trade or a major player wants to take a gargantuan paycut. Keep an eye on Marcin Gortat- it would not be surprising to see a team give up some assets to get him this summer. Philadelphia: Ouch. They committed to their current roster and now pretty much have to live with the consequences of that unless they are willing to move a guy like Andre Iguodala. That said, the contribution from Jrue Holiday has made PG less of a need for the future, which should help their flexibility. Phoenix: Since Nash already signed his extension, the Suns are in an interesting place when it comes to 2010. If Amare opts out and signs elsewhere, Phoenix could have some cap space available to spend on free agents, though their situation is complicated a little by Channing Frye having a player option and likely looking for a longer contract, a higher annual salary, or both. That said, we could see the Suns save that money should the situation arise because Jason Richardson comes off the books for 2011 and they will not have any big money extensions to dole out then. Portland: The Blazers’ cap window closed right at the start of this season with the extensions to Roy and Aldridge. That sense of urgency led to the Andre Miller signing because they wanted to maximize their one shot at adding a free agent for more than the MLE. Either way, Portland does not have a ton of wiggle room in terms of cap room or roster space, so it is hard to see them being a factor in the free agent market. Sacramento: The big trade with Houston (and NY, technically) took Kevin Martin off Sacto’s books and added on Carl Landry’s very reasonable deal, changing their dynamics for this off-season. While it is unclear if they are going to make any major moves, one indicator to watch is if Spencer Hawes signs an extension before next season, since that would make their long-term accounting even clearer. San Antonio: Trading for Richard Jefferson completely took them out of the 2010 Sweepstakes (working out great at the moment…), though their space would have been generated by not re-signing Manu Ginobili, so they were never going to be factors in the first place. Besides the aforementioned Ginobili and Roger Mason, Los Spurs have their rotation locked up for next season, so don’t expect too much turnover in the short term. Toronto: Though they would have a small amount of space if Chris Bosh moves south this summer, it’s so close to the MLE that it does not mean much. Colangelo put in his lot with the Hedo signing, and we will have to see whether or not that works out. Utah: The contracts this summer for Millsap and Okur put the Jazz out the free agent derby this summer, though they should be under the luxury tax pretty safely. Of course, what they do with Carlos Boozer between now and then could have a substantial impact on this summer. Beyond having a likely top-10 draft pick courtesy of Isaiah Thomas and the Knicks, one compelling move they could make this summer is a move of Andrei Kirilenko’s soon to be expiring deal for another 2011-expiring that makes less money to ensure that the Jazz are OK in terms of the tax. Washington: The Wizards have undergone massive changes over the last few months that have dramatically changed their 2010 realm in some respects. First off, Agent Zero is the only substantial long-term commitment left, and Josh Howard’s injury makes the team declining his option even more certain. It’s hard to guess what their role will be in all of this, but Washington could easily pick up a guy or two left hanging by the gap between the stars and the hoi polloi (Raymond Felton, for example). They could also be a compelling trade partner for a team that wants to unload 2011-expirings to get further under the cap/tax or work a sign and trade involving Howard, Mike Miller, or Randy Foye.
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