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A prevailing wisdom in NBA circles is that LeBron James will have a player option after the third season of his new deal, regardless of where he signs. He has seemed to enjoy the capability of forcing his franchise into an ‘all-in every single season’ policy that handing over the next five or six seasons of his career, the ones that will comprise his ultimate prime is too giant a faith leap.

In other words, the kind of fervent jockeying for cap space that we have seen over the past few years, really ever since LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh signed shortened three-year extensions in 2006, can become an endless three-year cycle. The team that signs any member of this Trinity, though particularly LeBron considering his combination of youth and dominance, must be constantly improving their team under the fear that their franchise player can leave in a soon-impending summer, not unlike politicians who begin campaigning for reelection immediately after delivering their election night victory speech. The Cavaliers front office has worked with a sense of desperate urgency because of this, making bold expensive moves with customary regularity.

Potentially joining that Trinity in 2013, depending on who signs extensions in 2011 or 2012, could be unrestricted free agents from the 2008 draft class (1) in Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, O.J. Mayo, Brook Lopez, Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, restricted free agents from the 2009 class such as Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin and Tyreke Evans, along with unrestricted free agents Andrew Bynum, Josh Smith, Kevin Martin and Monta Ellis.

In the 2012 class before them, beginning their own three-year cycles, will be Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Deron Williams, along with potentially Kevin Durant and Greg Oden if they are willing to risk not signing extensions this summer or in 2011. This 2012 class could even exceed the 2010 class in terms of both depth and actual movement.

This type of strength, power and exercise of leverage is something we haven't seen held by players in the NBA’s history.

In the past, superstars playing under six-year contracts containing no mid-term player options, had a few different, yet limited options, if they were unhappy with their teams’ prospects:

1. Kevin Garnett Ethos: Put your head down, work hard, remain intensely loyal to your franchise until prevailing sympathy becomes too widespread to ignore. Get traded, win championship, albeit in the twilight of your career where a sustained run becomes difficult.

2. Vince Carter Ethos: Pout and complain your way out of franchise that just drafted a scoring big (Bosh) who would become one of the two or three best in the NBA. Destroy team's leverage while GM mistakenly caves to behavior and gives you away for pennies on the dollar.

3. Stephon Marbury Ethos: Stop caring and develop erratic behavior while you age physically with frightening quickness.

Out of the current group of superstars, Paul is the only player in a relatively dead-end situation (no potential cap space, limited budget team, not much growth potential in terms of talent with current roster) that might begin to warrant behavior in one of these three ethos and as mentioned above, he is just over two years away from deciding his own future in free agency. The potential of walking in two years is really the only thing that will save him from going the Garnett route that is frequently alluded to regarding his future frustrations.

The only promising and gracious end to this cycle of uncertainty that has plagued the entire 09-10 season for the Cavaliers, Raptors and Heat, along with every team involved in the salary cap gamble, is either one of the said players begins to decline and lose value, or their team becomes too talented and well-positioned to win titles to consider leaving.

As of this moment, Kobe Bryant will be every bit as free to sign anywhere he wants this summer as the LeBron/Wade/Bosh Trinity, but he is rarely mentioned because everyone expects him to finally sign that mysteriously delayed extension with the Lakers. Unlike the Trinity, Kobe has absolutely no reason to leave the Lakers due to their vastly superior supporting cast and also because he is savvy enough to realize his individual legacy will be significantly greater if he remains with a legendary franchise for his entire career the way Magic, West and Elgin did.

Kobe of course used the leverage of his ETO, as well as his no trade clause, into forcing Mitch Kupchak, Phil Jackson and the Buss Family to accelerate their timetable of building a championship-worthy team around him.

They responded by daringly taking on the contract of Pau Gasol, which was considered burdensome while he was languishing with the Grizzlies, and they have all been rewarded by two consecutive Finals appearances. Bryant of course didn't opt out after the 08-09 season as he threatened.

The value of superstars having a player option or an ETO after the fourth year or later is completely one-sided in their favor. Last summer's contract extension talks involving Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge with the Blazers proves to be a perfect example. Roy, the superior player, not only received a full max contract extension, but he can also terminate his contract after the 13-14 season. Aldridge, however, received a below max contract and also cannot terminate his contract after the 13-14 season, giving Portland an additional season of security.

Fellow 2006 draft class members Rajon Rondo and Andrea Bargnani also signed extensions last summer; Rondo has no ETO, while Bargnani can join Roy in 2014 by using his ETO.

Depending on what happens in the new CBA, teams will almost certainly begin holding a harder line on allowing players to have that final season under an ETO or a player option after three seasons, perhaps giving more money annually in the process to players who aren’t max or nothing cases.

The threat and lure that players of this caliber can become free agents every three years, or some other arbitrary number of their choosing, could be the single biggest factor that drives owners to soberly sign contracts to mid-tier players who once were dreaming of becoming the next Jared Jeffries, Jerome James or Corey Maggette financially. The market has already corrected itself considerably from the free-swinging days of five years ago, both because of the recession but also due to a new crop of GMs that are not so frequently former players. Now they better understand the financial implications of their personnel decisions and there really hasn’t been a GM that hasn’t been saddled with a burdensome contract at least once. Teams also employ or consult with capologists and therefore make more empowered moves. They also now have free agency as a realistic option of building a team, unlike the Isiah Thomas GM strategy of perpetually doubling down on huge contracts of formerly talented players nobody wants.

Most NBA title winners have been built principally from the draft, with Shaquille O'Neal's free agency to the Lakers being the lone genuine exception. But that was under the previous CBA and it has taken the 2003 draft class to fully take advantage of its nuances in ways players from the 90s classes really never considered or realized.

The increase of the NBA's best players using free agency creates a different equation for general managers. GMs from bad teams no longer are forced to helplessly rearrange deck chairs while hopeful for lottery fortune, while GMs from good teams can never relax behind the long-term security of having their best players sheltered for five or six-season intervals.

The current CBA financially favors players remaining with the team that owns their Bird Rights and I expect a similar clause to remain present or even be expanded upon in the next one, so that still serves as the best counter to players leaving beyond having a talented supporting core. The players do have a counter to that by urging a sign-and-trade, but their incumbent team must receive something back of usefulness that depletes their new team to at least some degree.

The 09-10 season has been a fatiguing exercise of fixation on summer free agency and unfortunately or not, there appears to be no end in sight.

Notes

1.) For the sake of history, David Lee is the only All-Star to get all the way to unrestricted free agency on a first-round rookie contract and that is of course a special circumstance precipitated by New York's 2010 cap space strategy.