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It is impossible to judge the merits of whether or not the Warriors should have accepted a reportedly proposed trade from the Grizzlies of O.J. Mayo and Hasheem Thabeet for Monta Ellis without looking through the prism of Ellis and Stephen Curry. The almost universal belief that the Warriors mistakenly declined that deal says more about Curry and Ellis than it does even about Mayo.

Ellis had one of the most efficient scoring seasons in 07-08 that we have ever seen for a guard listed at 6'3" or under. He shot 53.1% from the floor that season, with only Tony Parker, Otis Birdsong, Norm Nixon and Byron Scott being the only players to join him in that territory while attempting at least 1000 field goals in a single season.

Two things have changed since that season, however, Ellis is no longer playing with a big-bodied point guard like Baron Davis and he also severely injured his left ankle in a moped accident. He has recovered impressively and was considered an All-Star candidate in some circles (Daniel Leroux, Bay Area radio), while he was an overrated product of a high-paced system that made his team worse when he was on the floor (John Hollinger, Tim Kawakami).

For me, the truth is somewhere in between. The Warriors are not and were not better without Ellis, at least not when some many minutes are being filled with D-Leaguers, but his TS% of 51.9% and 16.9 PER made his productivity a long ways away from his 58% and 19.0 respectively in 07-08. Ellis can get to the rim in such a unique way that very few guards are capable of, creating his own offense in an NBA where that has become increasingly rare due to how good defensive schemes and scouting are these days.

Golden State's 'way out of contention record' made passing on Ellis in favor of Jason Kidd and Chauncey Billups an easy decision for David Stern, though the addition of Chris Kaman over Carlos Boozer was more dubious than even Ellis would have been.

Unquestionably, Ellis is a very good offensive player and has made a bigger commitment to defense than he has in the past. He unfairly has been asked to defend bigger shooting guards who have several inches and several dozen pounds on him in order for Ellis to share the floor with Curry. Ellis was vocal in his displeasure about what their pairing would mean defensively before the season began, but he has seemed to embrace the situation with more enthusiasm than expected.

Curry has simply been too good to not be on the floor and Golden State's backcourt future almost certainly will revolve around him. He has successfully transitioned to a physical NBA in a way that I didn't expect to see from him until his third season. I expected him to be a 15 minute per night spot-up shooter who would be a severe liability defensively and be unable to run an offense at point guard, let alone frequently get into the lane with the dribble.

The Case For Curry Over Ellis

1. Curry is two and a half years younger than Ellis.

2. Curry has a 56.6% TS% compared to a career mark of 54.0% for Ellis. Ellis has been much closer to 50% since returning from injury, while Curry's TS% should increase at least slightly.

3. Curry has a significantly higher basketball IQ and is capable of being a pure point guard.

4. Monta will make $11M per season through the 13-14 season (ETO in that season), while Curry will make $2.91M, $3.12M and $3.96M before becoming a restricted free agent in 13-14. Saving money (1) is always attractive to the Warriors and they could even position themselves to sign a max contract in 2011 if they were to also clear Corey Maggette and Andris Biedrins.

5. Curry is an immensely more likable personality who would be an excellent team leader and franchise player to sell to the public.

6. Ellis is naturally shy and the relationship between him and the franchise probably has too much bitter history to ever be repaired. He is outwardly sullen and bitter and clearly would like a fresh start elsewhere.

7. It is unlikely that Curry ever develops into the kind of finisher in the lane that is Monta's trademark, but he has much more of that game in him than Monta does as a perimeter shooter. There have been several times this season where I have picked up a highlight or tuned in to a Warriors game in the middle of an offensive play where I've thought I was seeing Ellis drive into the lane only to realize it was Curry.

In a similar situation, Sacramento identified the inability for the Tyreke Evans and Kevin Martin backcourt to work in the long-term, acted swiftly and they recouped a very good low post scorer in Carl Landry along with significant payroll savings with their three-way deal before the deadline.

Mayo is just a few months older than Curry and I can't think of a shooting guard who would be a more ideal fit in terms of skill set and age.

Mayo is a poor man's Dwyane Wade in the sense of being a natural scoring wing, but he is also gifted enough with the dribble to be a frequent ballhandler. He can initiate the offense and create for others, though he absolutely needs to be a better decision-maker to reduce his turnovers.

Importantly, Mayo has also been an excellent perimeter shooter since coming into the league. He has a career average of 38.6% from beyond the arc with over 600 career attempts.

There has been some talk about Mayo's struggles on defense this season and there appears to be some statistical proof of that. The Grizzlies are allowing four fewer points per 100 possessions defensively with Mayo on the floor. Mayo has enough size and athleticism to defend any shooting guard in the league, leaving Curry to man shorter, less physical point guards. He has been outperformed in terms of PER by his counterparts at shooting guard by a margin of -1.4, but that is at least partially responsible to a drop in his usage because of Zach Randolph.

We're not sure the specifics of the trade offer from Memphis, but we can safely assume that no problematic contracts were offered in return since they don't have any. Randolph is the only player beyond Steven Hunter who isn't on a rookie deal or minimum contract. The only contract that could possibly be considered a bad one is Thabeet, who was the second overall pick less than a season ago and will make $4.79M, $5.13M and $6.47M until becoming an RFA in 13-14. I can only assume Marcus Thompson was referring to Thabeet when he reported that Memphis was asking Golden State to take on a bad contract because I don't see any other potential culprits.

I'm unwilling to dismiss the possibility of Curry and Ellis being able to coexist on some level, but their individual potential is clearly being compromised by the pairing and I think it is sooner rather than later that Ellis is dealt. Will they get as much in return for Ellis this summer or next deadline as they could have right now in a rookie contract, huge upside shooting guard that complements Curry? I highly doubt the return will even be close to this, especially considering what Washington got back in their firesale.

The question then stops being why should the Warriors have dealt Ellis for Mayo as much as it is why didn't they do the deal?

Note

1. The net savings of Mayo and Thabeet would all but disappear in 2011 and would be significantly more in 2012 either under Mayo's qualifying offer or extension. I wasn't high on Thabeet as the second overall pick, but he has blocked four shots per 36 minutes and has a TS% of 60.6. Like most raw centers, he struggles to remain on the floor due to fouls.

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